Toronto and Vancouver now rank weakest in UBS bubble index, but risk isn't gone

UBS's 2026 bubble index puts Toronto and Vancouver at the bottom of its global housing ranking, with bubble risk downgraded to moderate. CMHC's economist says the bigger worry is now housing supply.

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Updated Oct 6, 2026

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UBS's 2026 Global Real Estate Bubble Index ranks Toronto and Vancouver as the weakest housing markets among the cities it tracks. Inflation-adjusted prices in both fell about 10 per cent over the past year, while the rest of the group rose roughly half a per cent.

UBS also lowered both cities' bubble risk from "elevated" to "moderate." Prices are still high by most measures, with the GTA benchmark near $930,000 and Metro Vancouver around $1.08 million.

The risk to watch is supply. CMHC's deputy chief economist says a strong economic rebound without more construction could bring bubble conditions back within a few years.

AffordabilityCondo MarketHome EquityHome Prices

Source: Financial Post

Sources

Financial Post, reporting on UBS's Global Real Estate Bubble Index.

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