Canada Lost 68,300 Jobs in September, Rate Hike Expectations Pull Back
Canada lost 68,300 jobs in September, erasing all 2026 employment gains and pushing back Bank of Canada rate hike expectations, welcome news for variable-rate borrowers.
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Canada lost 68,300 jobs in September, erasing all 2026 employment gains and pushing back Bank of Canada rate hike expectations, welcome news for variable-rate borrowers.
A Re/Max survey finds 65% of Canadian buyers will compromise on location, property type, or finances to afford a more suitable home. Buyer-friendly market conditions have doubled compared to a year ago.
Toronto condo sales fell again in September and the average GTA price is now 24.3% below its 2022 peak. Rising fixed rates and growing hike expectations are adding pressure from both directions.
UBS's 2026 bubble index puts Toronto and Vancouver at the bottom of its global housing ranking, with bubble risk downgraded to moderate. CMHC's economist says the bigger worry is now housing supply.
A Financial Action Task Force report says Canada must improve money laundering enforcement in real estate. BC's Mortgage Services Act takes effect October 13, introducing new oversight for private lenders and brokers.
Stability beats stimulus when the goal is affordability.
What changes when the person explaining your options isn't paid to sell you one.
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The Bank of Canada overnight rate. Variable mortgages follow it within weeks; fixed rates follow the bond market instead, which is why the two move apart.
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The average posted 5-year fixed rate across the major lenders. What you are actually offered usually sits below it.
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The average posted 5-year variable rate. It moves with the Bank of Canada's overnight rate, usually within days of an announcement.
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The Bank of Canada (BoC) has held its overnight interest rate at 2.25% seven consecutive times as of September 2, 2026. Variable rates have barely budged at all. On the other hand, fixed mortgage rates have been quietly climbing; the reason has nothing to do with the BoC.

In an increasingly fast-paced digital landscape, the way mortgage brokers communicate with clients can make or break a deal.

If investors expect a rate increase in December, bond yields may rise in advance. Mortgage lenders can respond by increasing fixed rates even while the overnight policy rate remains unchanged.

“What happens on October 28th effectively showcases next year’s rate environment for Canadian mortgage borrowers.”

For Canadians renewing a mortgage in 2025, the hold offers a rare window of stability. Understanding your options before that window closes could save you thousands.
Royal Bank of Canada
5 year fixed
InsurableRate 6.19%
TD Canada Trust
5 year fixed
InsurableRate 6.09%
Scotiabank Canada
5 year fixed
InsurableRate 6.19%
The posted number is where the conversation starts, not where it ends. Run your own balance, term and amortization against today's verified rates before you assume what you can carry.
A verified professional can tell you what you would actually be offered, and what it costs to break a term early.
Your balance, term and amortization against today's verified rates.
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Rate decisions explained. Independent commentary on what each Bank of Canada announcement means for your finances.